paradigm shift
[ par-uh-dahym shift ]
Phonetic (Standard) IPA
noun
1. a dramatic change in the paradigm of a scientific community,
or a change from one scientific paradigm to another.
2. a significant change in the paradigm of any discipline or group:
Putting skilled, tenured teachers in failing schools would cause a
paradigm shift in teaching and education.
Geek has been in the wine business for almost five decades (!) and writing on these pages for 25 years. During that time, there have been many changes in the industry; many economic ups & downs, many trends that came and went, and many changes in consumer demand. Always, the alcohol beverage survived and sometimes actually prospered (2020 and 2021 were very good years for the business!). However, there are now some seismic shifts taking place that seem to be here to stay…not necessarily good ones.
First, there seems to be a generational shift away from drinking—at least drinking as much as we baby-boomers did–motivated partially by more health-consciousness. Add in that the cost of premium wines (at least those from the U.S.) have gone up significantly over the past several years: entry-level Napa Cabernets are around $40 a bottle these days, and the really good stuff starts at $100…and can go way up from there.
Then there are things like Cannabis: we’re pretty sure that if a group is eating some gummies, they are not also drinking two bottles of Jordan Cabernet (maybe, but…). Same for RTDs like High Noon: a few of those while sitting on your deck most likely sates the desire for the mild, medicinal effects of alcohol, i.e. no need to open that $40 bottle of Flowers Chardonnay.
A thing not often mentioned, but also impactful are the new semaglutide weight-loss drugs; these apparently slow down digestion so a person feels full longer…and slower processing of alcohol is included, so one does not drink as much.
All of this has impacted super-premium wines especially. There was a time when ANY new Cabernet from California–$50, $100, $200 a bottle was easy to sell and frequently allocated. Today, some of these iconic wines are not only allocated; they are being discounted. We noticed this coming a few years ago—and then in 2024 it was dramatic: as Hemingway wrote in one of his novels (when a character was explaining how he went bankrupt) ‘it was gradually, then suddenly’. If any readers want to take a position on our very best Napa Cabernets right now…we have them available.
Of course, people will still be drinking, but they will be drinking differently. The smartest of those reading this have already adjusted their go-to-market strategies. Offering a bigger selection of the things that are selling e.g. RTDs, more modestly priced wines BTG—which includes a lot more imports since on average, premium wines from Europe are priced below their counterparts from California. We see more and more (and more) zero-proof/mocktail lists in all levels of restaurants and bars. RTDs—such as High Noon—are extending their brands with things like last year’s High Noon teas to this year’s High Noon ‘Lucky One’ lemonade offerings. We are also seeing a resurgence of interest in ‘natural’ wines—the cool new thing 10 years ago, which stalled for a while, but for which we see a lot of activity on of late.
Bottom line to this is that though we still sell LOTS of the stuff we’ve been selling for years (we still don’t get enough Caymus Cabernet or the Massa Derthona for example), it is a time to pivot. Having a beverage program that is similar to the standard beverage program in 2000 isn’t going to cut it any longer. Time for a refresh…and we will help you do it!